ANÁLISIS CUANTITATIVO E INTERPRETATIVO DE LAS INVERSIONES PÚBLICAS EN PARAGUAY DURANTE EL PERIODO 2020-2025

Abstract

The public discussion in Paraguay about investments and debt interests is usually based on comparisons of gross amounts and annual averages, which are usually exposed to biases due to seasonality, outliers and non-stationarity. From the theoretical and econometric point of view, the rigorous treatment of time series (cleaning, seasonal adjustment, verification of normality and stationarity, as well as use of first differences when appropriate) allows for the identification of trends and variability signals that do not depend on calendar effects or specific episodes. This enables the making of valid inferences (tests, intervals, forecasts) and avoids spurious conclusions. In empirical and public policy terms, a more accurate diagnosis of investment dynamics provides actionable evidence for budget programming, evaluation of the effectiveness of public spending and effective communication of results to ordinary citizens. The approach adopted hereby improves month-on-month and year-on-year comparability, reducing the likelihood of overreactions to seasonal peaks, while favoring decisions based on refined information. In short, this study seeks to quantify the effects of seasonal adjustments on the interpretation of public debt in Paraguay. The latter is done by comparing the original series with its seasonally adjusted version during the period 2020-2025, in order to provide a robust reading of public investment that can guide decision-making and enrich the economic policy debate. Methodologically speaking, the work adopts a quantitative, applied and non-experimental approach, with a longitudinal design based on observations. It then uses econometric techniques to seasonally adjust the monthly series of Central Government debt, prioritizing official data from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), along with the use of multilateral sources for contrast. Results indicate that public investment between 2020 and 2025 has not shown any sustained increases or decreases, but rather occasional rises and decreases around a certain level. The peaks observed in December and falls in January do not represent economic "booms" or "crises", but correspond to fiscal calendar effects, inducing that month-to-month variations should be interpreted as normal movements rather than substantive changes in public investment policy.